Tuesday, December 15, 2015

$MCK A Winning Trade of Billionaire Investor Leon Cooperman

Billionaire Leon Cooperman is a well-known value investor. His portfolio holdings are full of value stock ideas that are great for value investors to study. Remember these stocks were well researched by Cooperman's well paid research analysts. They are top stock picks that Cooperman is willing to bet with his money on.
$MCK is one such winning bet that produced at least $60/sh gains for Cooperman. He bought it initially at max $126/sh in 2013Q2 and recently exited at minimum $186/sh in 2015Q3.
How can individual investors catch a stock winner like $MCK with the knowledge of Leon Cooperman was buying? HedgeMind may help. HedgeMind.com made it very easy for for investors to follow smart money, especially top performing hedge fund managers like Leon Cooperman, David Tepper, George Soros and gain great insights into what they are buying and selling each quart.
Two hedgemind indicators, HM Sentiment & % Funds Owing Stock, are especially useful for investors to study with each their own stocks. Both indicators are derived from hedge fund holdings data and represent the collective trading activities of hedge fund managers in a quarter. They are correlating positively with stock price, most of the time a slightly earlier than stock price move.
Higher bullish hedge funds sentiment on a stock indicates more hedge fund buyings. Rising % funds holders tell us more new hedge fund managers are accumulating the stock, also bullish.
Let's take a look at $MCK's price chart and HedgeMind infographic shown below and pay particular attention to the two indicators, HedgeMind Sentiment & % Funds Owning MCK.



Hedge funds sentiment were highest in 2013 and early 2014 when $MCK was at onset of 2-year rally. % Funds holders also rose during the same early period. By middle 2014, hedge fund investors began to cash out as indicated by hedgemind sentiment and % Funds holders while $MCK continued to rise.Both Hedge funds sentiment & % Funds holders reached low at 2015Q1, a quarter ahead of stock peaked in 2015Q2.
Hope investors learn a thing or 2 from this analysis and improve your winning chance and beat the "loser's game".
Visit hedgemind.com for more stock ideas like $MCK

Friday, December 4, 2015

Tiger Legend Julian Robertson and his famous Tiger Cubs

Julian Robertson is legendary in many ways, investing, mentoring. Mark Yusko, founder & CIO of Morgan Creek Capital Management; wrote "Julian’s investment acumen was so highly regarded, he became known as the 'Wizard of Wall Street,' hence the Wizard of Oz reference in the title of the letter." in his Q1 2015 Market Review & Outlook, a worth read for investors and traders.
"Today, there are close to 100 hedge funds around the world with Tiger DNA", counted by Mark Yusko. 40+ of these tiger cubs and tiger seeds are tracked by hedgeMind for their stock picks and trading activities.
Many Julian Robertson's tiger cubs are billionaire hedge fund managers: Andreas Halvorsen, Stephen Mandel, Chase Coleman, Philippe Laffont, Robert Citrone, Lee Ainslie. They together manage hundreds of billions and produce impressive returns.
The best way to follow them is to learn about their investment style, stock picks, and portfolio management. Like big tiger Julian Robertson, like tiger cubs, they invest in growth stocks, holding less than 40 stocks no matter how big portfolios, placing 50% or more weight in only top 10 stocks, concentrated bets.
Julian Robertson's portfolio is a typical tiger hedgies portfolios (see infographic).


By analyzing his portfolio composition, quarterly stock buys and sales, one can gain great insights from his stock picks, sector allocations, position sizing as well as overall portfolio management. Each new stock buy of his is worth us to pay attention since he has many top talented stock analysts who help him to find the next big FB or AAPL. Why not leverage their hard and better work to build an winning edge?

Sunday, November 29, 2015

Follow the Smart Money: Why, How, Who

"Follow the Smart Money" is never about the buzz words that stock market pundits and CNBC news anchors frequently uttered in their daily stock commentaries or news hype. It is about learning from the best and increasing your own winning chances.

What is the term "The Smart Money"? 
Cambridge Dictionaries Online defined "The Smart Money" as 
"money that is ​invested by ​experienced ​investors who ​know a lot about what they are doing." 

At HedgeMind, we defined "The Smart Money" as these ledgendary investors/traders: Warren Buffett, George Soros, Julian Robertson, Stanley Druckenmiller, Carl Icahn, David Tepper, Chase Coleman, Lei Zhang, Seth Klarman, Steve Cohen... who already became self-made billionaires through investing. 

We also consider many young, rising star hedge fund managers as the smart money and worth active individual investors and traders to learn and follow. We will introduce them on this HedgeMind page. 


We will use winning stock examples uncovered on the hedgemind.com to illustrate how the smart money produced winners and avoided losses. Hopefully we all will become a better and smarter investors. 

Sunday, November 22, 2015

How to use HedgeMind Sentiment Indicator to Find Winning Stock Ideas


What is HedgeMind Sentiment

The HedgeMind Sentiment measures the percentage of hedge fund managers who expressed bullish (buying), bearish (selling), and neutral views on the stock. It is calculated on quarterly basis. 

What is the purpose of HedgeMind Sentiment? 

Wall Street has a saying "Following the smart money".  HedgeMind Sentiment is generated just for that purpose to make it easy for investors and traders to follow smart money.


Correlations of HM sentiment with stock prices. 

Lets use FB as an example to illustrate this correlation of hedge funds sentiment with its stock price for the past two years.

Chart below shows FB's sentiment history from 2013Q3 to 2015Q3: 

FB HedgeMind Sentiment as of 2015-09-30
FB's HM sentiment infographic has three critical quarters where hedge funds showed very either bullish or bearish sentiment. The most notable one is FB enjoyed strong bullish buyings, recorded 80% bullish sentiment in 2013Q3. Then bullish hedgies sentiment declined and turned to bearish, 61% in 2014Q1. More recently FB's hedgies sentiment became bullish again and had a 55% bullish sentiment in 2015Q2. 

What's the FB's stock price after these 3 key quarters? Let's analyze HM sentiment in FB stock chart. 

FB Stock chart with its HM Sentiment
Note HM sentiment is calculated 45 days later after each quarter when hedge funds complete their #13F filings. So we can assume the earliest date when an investor possibly can react to the sentiment data will be 45 days later after each quarter when its sentiment data is published. 

Followed FB's 80% bullish sentiment in 2013Q3, its stock price gained 40% in 3 months, 57% in 12 months, 120% in 24 months from 2013-11-15. A very positive correlation is observed here. 

Will FB enjoy positive return again after FB had a 55% bullish hedgies sentiment again in 2105Q3? Most probably in the next 3-6 months. So far $FB gained 20% since Oct 1, 2015 to today, Nov 21, 2015. We will follow up later. 

More analysis is clearly required to prove whether the HM sentiment can consistently and systematically show strong positive correlation with a stock price. At least our early analysis seems to be very encouraging.