$ALJ Billionaire Steve Cohen's new trade

Well-known hedge fund manager Steve Cohen disclosed he bought 2.69 mln new shares of Alon USA Energy ($ALJ), an independent refiner in #13G filing on 7/15. He increased his stake to 3.81 mln sh, 5.4% ownership, a 240% increase.

Why did he make this trade now?

1. $ALJ has declined 56% YTD
2. $ALJ only traded 6.7% above 52 wk low.
3. Stock chart seems to form a double bottom indicating a possible bottom may have been reached.

Cohen's trade is most likely a bargain hunting trade.

To find out more who are the hedge fund holders of $ALJ, go to https://hedgemind.com/stocks/ALJ

$TTOO & $CASC Microcap biotech stocks attracted Julian Robertson and Seth Klarman

$TTOO Julian Robertson, the legendary hedge fund manager Julian Robertson disclosed in a SEC 13G filing that he just purchased 704,383 sh of $TTOO, is an in vitro diagnostics company engaged in developing a technology platform offering an alternative to diagnostic methodologies. Robertson's new trade more than doubled his stake to 1.25mln sh 5.17% ownership.

$TTOO has suffered a 51% YTD decline as of today, 65% in a year and currently is traded at 52 week low. T2 Biosystems recently pushed out the expected timeline for the completion of T2Bacteria Panel pivotal trial. Also the stock was downgraded to sell from Buy at BTIG Research; tgt to $4 from $12 today.

$CASC Seth Klarman, the value legend, disclosed he acquired a 25mln sh stake at $0.8/sh from biotech's recent 35mln sh public offering. The company recently received Fast Track designation from FDA for the treatment of advanced HER2+ metastatic breast cancer. The Company is actively recruiting patients for a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled Phase 2 study, known as HER2CLIMB, evaluating ONT-380 in combination with trastuzumab and capecitabine for patients with advanced HER2+ metastatic breast cancer. Stock lost 56% YTD, -73% in a year.

Coincidently both stocks are traded at about $125 million market cap and have declined in similar range in the past year. Whether these top hedge funds' actions can really help their stock prices is still a huge question. But it is worth to view this as positive info that these smart money is willing to make a bet on both beaten down microcap biotechs.

Is It to Buy $MU now?

When you saw $MU jumped 10% today after two Wall Street analysts upgrade, you may think maybe this stock finally has bottomed. After all it is a cheap stock and many value investors including value guru David Einhorn had bet with big money on it.

Whatever you are thinking, the first step is probably understand what the analysts who said in their notes of upgrade. If you agree with their analysis, then the next good step is to see who among smart money still have a stake in it.

$MU made 52 week low at ~$9.5, also a 3 year low in May. It rebounded sharply 45%+ since May low. It was a great win for whoever caught the low. Will this bounce from the bottom last?

HedgeMind offers investors $MU infographic to gain a quick view of what hedge funds have done and whether they are still in it to win it.

$MU Infographic

$MU still has 81.75 ownership held by institutional investors, but less than 1% by HM Hedge Funds universe. Its hedge fund sentiment at end of Q1, 2016 reached an extreme bearish level, at 74% which is the lowest since HM created this indicator. Another bearish sign is % of hedge funds owning $MU also declined to the lowest level, just around 3%.

Now who the long term investors are still in this stock?

David Einhorn, a deep value hedge fund manager, had been the biggest believer of $MU for a long time, since 2013 Q3 when he initiated 23 million shares of Micron Tech (infographic 2). He bailed out totally in 2015 Q4. David Cohen of Iridian Asset Management then became top holder in 2015 Q4 among hedge funds. He decided to cut loss too in the first quarter, 2016. David Einhorn and David Cohen, both long term investors, are out. Now you see quantitative trading hedge fund managers are at the top of holder list.

To buy or not to buy, now you have more info to chew on.

David Einhorn's $MU holding history

How To Follow Hedge Funds and Their Investing Ideas

Should you follow the investments and trades of hedge funds?

A Q&A between Stefan Chepllck, editor at Stocktwits and HedgeMind 

$MCD's HedgeMind Infographic is Worth a thousand Words

What more do we need to say? Shall we say that's called "smart money move"? We expect them do so correctly, be right, be not too greedy, and took half of profits off the table. They did just that. 

Hedge Fund Trade Spotlight: $MNK

$MNK has suffered sharp decline since last July's dramatic crash, it lost 50%+ in a year. But since then it has been stabilized around $60 (See stock chart).

Has $MNK turned corner yet? Nobody can really know with stock market. If you or I know, then I wouldn't be writing this post.smile emoticonIn fact even the smartest investors like billionaire hedge fund managers, John Paulson, Phil Gross, both holders of $MNK, would dare to say they knew today. But it doesn't prevent us from doing some analysis of hedge funds trading behaviors of this stock.

There are positive signs emerging from the latest 13F filings of hedge funds. For those who are not familiar with what it is 13F, in one sentence, it is a SEC filing requirement for all institutional investors with $100 mln Asset Under Management to disclose their US equity assets at the end of each quarter. Note it is for their long position only and it should be done 45 days after the end of quarter.

What are positive signs we saw in Q1 filings by the hedge funds? Overall they seemed to like it by adding more shares. 8 of Top 10 holders all increased their stakes or initiated new stakes. (see HM infographic). While hedge funds sentiment reading is just neutral, it doesn't take away the strong bullish sentiment among the top holders who seem to be more confident than the bears. Even more notable buyer is Arthur Cohen of Healtcor, a healthcare focused tiger cub, who raised his stake by 690% to now significant 1.72mln sh from initial 249k in Q4. $MNK is now a top 10 holding of Cohen's $1.76bln portfolio and has 6% portfolio weight.

As of end of Q1, HedgeMind Hedge Funds owns 15.87% total shares outstanding while all institutional investors total 95.09%.

For anyone who is interested in $MNK, long or short or just watching, these signs are worth to take notice. 

IMPORTANT: Note this post is neither fundamental or technical analysis of $MNK. It is an analysis of hedge fund holdings.

Welcome to the New HedgeMind.com!

We have redesigned the site for investors to find stock ideas quickly and easily. New Home Page shows you the core features of HedgeMind. Our new navigation menu provides you easy access to HM's most powerful features and stock screeners. 

Validate Your Stock Idea

The most powerful stock search built with you in mind. All you need to do just entering a stock in your mind to see who among top hedge funds also like the same stock.

Stock Ideas:

Identifies potential winning stock picks from top performing hedge funds based on HedgeMind's rigorous research and proprietary indicators. It's designed to help investors get actionable investing ideas quickly and easily. Here are lists of Stock Ideas currently published:
Hedge Fund Trade Spotlight
High Conviction IPO Stocks
50 Stocks Matter Most

Invest Like a Hedge Fund

To invest like a hedge fund, one needs to find the right hedge fund manager to follow first. With 400+ outstanding hedge fund managers to choose from in HedgeMind, we have made it easy for you to find your perfect match with following 3 simple ways:

Find Your Match - enter 5-10 stock symbols
30 Must-Follow - they are the best HedgeMind recommends.
Notable Investor Groups - These are already most successful investors in the world.

There are many more updated features and content. Hope you find that one winning stock quickly!

How to find your perfect smart money manager to follow?

Following smart money requires you to find one or a few right ones who fits your investment style and stock interest. Not only you know them well as a hedge fund manager, but you need really to trust their stock picks that will meet your taste. Only then following the smart money will enhance your probability of winning in stock market as an investor, no matter you are a money manager or individual DIY investor.

HedgeMind recently introduced a tool designed to make it easy to find your ideal hedge fund managers to follow. Let me show how:

Go to "Find the Right Hedge Fund Manager to Follow" page athttps://hedgemind.com/hedge-fund-managers/All

You will see options available for you to use. The easiest way is to just enter 5-10 stocks in your portfolio or stock watchlist in "Find Your Match" search box.
For example, HM likes popular "FANG" stocks: FB AMZN NFLX GOOG + TSLA AAPL. After entering these 6 stocks, "Find You Match" shows who among the top hedge fund managers are currently holding most of them. You may or may not know them yet. But you know now they are the ones who may have the same stock interest as you are. Your next step is to learn about each of them and then figure out who is your best match.

Option 2, "30 Must Follow" gives you a choice of 30 top performing hedge fund managers. They are top hedge funds ranked by Forbes or Bloomberg every year. If you are a growth investor with biotech focus, then you may find the names in "Biotech Must Follow" most interesting to you. If your investing style is value, then you can find legendary value investors, Warren Buffett, Seth Klarman, Leon Cooperman to be your best choices.

Option 3 makes your choice even wider. It is up to you to find out who will be your hedge funds out of many billionaires, tiger cubs, or shareholder activists.

Finding a smart money to follow has never been easier. Now find yours now at https://hedgemind.com

AGN lost its shine today

Allergan, the most popular stock among hedge funds on hedgemind.com, suffered a 15% loss after Secretary Lew 's announcement on tax inversions. It is now one more example of overcrowded stock that are doing serious damaging to hedge funds' money making skills after SUNE & VRX have already done so.

Nearly 28% of hedge funds, many of "who is who" of smart money, have a stake as of 12/31/15. Among them 13 hedge funds only just got in during Q4 2015 and bought it as a top 10 holding in their portfolio (see picture). Early buyers before 2015 may still have gains left even after today's big loss or 30% loss since last summer if they exit today. But for many unlucky ones who bought it during 2015 and still holding it, a loss is in the card, just how much they can stop.

Billionaire Andreas Halvorsen & John Paulson have been the top holders, each w/ 5+ mln shares held as of Q4 2015. They both sold 18%+ of their stakes during Q4 2015. But still their holding are significant should they still hold it as of today, the loss is YTD already 25%, ~$380+ mln. But more damages is really to smaller hedge funds w/ concentrated bet like tiger seed Nehal Chopra who were holding 27% her portfolio in this stock alone.

"Cut your losses short" is probably the time for hedge funds to apply this rule of thumb now.

What could we learn from this? When it is too crowded on one side, something will go wrong eventually. Don't overstay your welcome even when time is really good.

Who are the top hedge fund managers you can follow?

Happy New Year to all HM users and followers! We are going to suggest a few "Must Follow" hedge fund managers if you have found yours yet.

Who to follow is probably a tough decision to make. So many top investors but not everyone fits your investment style or sector interest. Each of us is unique in our own way in selecting stocks, growth or value, tech or biotech, large or small cap, under $10 or $100+... So the most value you can get from following smart money are the ones you can understand, trust, & meet your needs and taste of stocks.

Finding a manager truly yours to follow is a very individual task, no one size fits all. Though HM made it easy to do so, still a lot to do. HedgeMind's Notable Managers groups are a good place to start your search: 
https://hedgemind.com/hedge-fund-managers/All

But we have done the research and believe these HM's Top 5 "Must Follow" investors that are worth for investors to follow and learn. 

HedgeMind's Top 5 "Must Follow" Investors:

Healthcare/Biotech 1. Julian Baker 2. Kevin Kotler 3. Joseph Edelman 4. William Edwards 5. Chris James

Technology: 1. Philippe Laffont 2. Chase Coleman 3. Frank Sands 4. Chris Lord 5. Dan Benton

Growth Investors: 1. Julian Robertson 2. Stanley Druckenmiller 3. Stephen Mandel 4. Lei Zhang 5. Andreas Halvorsen

Value Investors: 1. Seth Klarman 2. Jeffrey Ubben 3. Leon Cooperman 4. David Abrams 5. Warren Buffett

Activist Investors: 1. Carl Icahn 2. Dan Loeb 3. Jeffrey Smith 4. William Ackman 5. Barry Rosenstein

Top Performing Investors: 1. David Tepper 2. Larry Robbins 3. John Paulosn 4. John Burbank 5. Alex Klabin

These are just some of our suggestion. In the end it is up to you to find your most favorite smart money managers to follow.